The coal market is operating in a volatile manner.
Regarding ports: Port inventories continue their downward trend, with insufficient supply of goods at ports, which supports traders' sentiment. However, due to the weakened market expectations for demand support during the peak season, coupled with the sluggish procurement demand from downstream end-users, the bullish sentiment in the market has cooled down, with more shipments taking place, and coal prices tending to operate steadily.
Regarding production areas: As port sentiment has declined and outsourcing prices have been lowered, wait-and-see sentiment in the circulation sector has heated up, spot demand has fallen, the rate of unsuccessful auctions at pitheads has increased, and inventories at some coal mines have accumulated. Overall, prices in production areas have declined slightly.
It is expected that the market coal price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. On the one hand, the peak summer electricity consumption season is gradually coming to an end, the release of incremental terminal demand is limited, and coupled with the squeeze from long-term contracted coal and imported coal, prices lack upward momentum. On the other hand, inventories at northern ports are at a low level, traders have emotional support, and coupled with the shortage of some high-quality supplies, the possibility of a rapid decline in coal prices is low.
Bohai Rim ports: The port market fluctuates within a narrow range. Currently, port inventories are still at a year-on-year low level, and the overall shipment pressure on the supply side is small. However, due to the weakened support from the cost side, coupled with the continued sluggish downstream demand, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down. Therefore, the upward momentum in the market has weakened, and the increase in coal prices has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the performance of terminal demand in the follow-up.
East China region: Thermal coal in the region fluctuates within a narrow range, and coke enterprises' prices operate steadily. Affected by production restrictions, the expectation of reduced supply at the end of the month is relatively clear, and the tight supply situation of coke will continue. Moreover, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is generally good. However, due to the recent compression of steel mills' profits, the game over the 7th round of coke price increases has intensified, and attention should be paid to the demand of steel mills in the follow-up.
North China region: Coke prices are operating steadily for the time being. For coke enterprises, although the short-term profit recovery has driven a slight increase in supply, affected by policies, production at the end of the month will be disturbed, and the expectation of overall tight supply has not changed. For steel mills, the overall inventory level of steel mills is still at a low level, coupled with the possible impact on supply at the end of the month, steel mills' enthusiasm for coke procurement is generally strong. However, as the price of finished steel products has continued to decline recently, steel mills' profits have been compressed, and the game over the 7th round of coke price increases is ongoing. Attention should be paid to the demand of steel mills in the follow-up.